Taking A Break

"Though we travel the world over to find the beautiful, we must carry it with us or we find it not."

    - Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803-1882), American poet

The Missus and I are heading to the Savannah Airport in a few minutes to catch a flight to California where we plan to meet some of our friends for 10 days of golf, eating out, shooting the bull, shopping, relaxing by the pool and whatever else people do when they're trying to do nothing.

It's been awhile since we've had a vacation like this, and we're really looking forward to it. Hopefully, we'll find better weather on the west coast than we've been having here. Full of optimism, we're even taking shorts just in case it's warm.

Since I won't be blogging until I return on February 10, I hope you won't abandon me. You may find some of my older entries worth reading, if you'll take some time to explore the things I was writing about when I was a younger man and the world was a more peaceful place.

Take good care of yourselves, don't let the politicians get your dander up, and don't worry, be happy. See you when I return.

Ron

Ignore Them, They'll Go Away

"For the choice before America is not between a Bush and a Gore; it is between Bush and real monsters, between us and people dedicated to our destruction."

   - David Warren, Canadian journalist and essayist

Hardly any of the Democratic candidates seem to be overly concerned about terrorism. Tony Blankley at TownHall.com has noticed this and makes the case that they should. I'm a little surprised at their lack of interest too, but when you understand where most of those who support them stand on the issue, it makes sense that they wouldn't be majoring on it in their speeches.

I have a son and many friends who are anti-war. I hate war too, but I believe there's no issue more critical to our country right now than dealing with terrorism. I never again want to experience what I saw the morning of September 11, 2001, but in my heart know the possibility exists no matter how vigilant we are. 

I believe we must continue to deal with and ultimately defeat the people who plan and carry out suicide attacks if we want our children and grand-children to live in an America where it's safe to go to work or a movie without worrying about being killed by some madman with a bomb strapped to his body.  

Paul Berman has written a new book about the phenomenon of terrorism titled Terror and Liberalism. If you want more insight on what motivates these people, how their utopian visions are not unlike those of Facism, Nazism and Communism, and how rational people can turn their heads pretending it doesn't exist and hoping it will go away, then read this book.

Whether you are for or against the war on terrorism you will come away with a new appreciation for what we're faced with.  

Is Kerry the Man?

"Most games are lost, not won."

  - Casey Stengal (1890-1975), baseball Hall-of-Famer

With the New Hampshire primary over and John Kerry still leading the other Democratic candidates, John Ellis, writing at Tech Central Station, feels that Kerry needs to seize the moment and put an end to his challengers' candidacies in South Carolina next week.

"He has his rivals on the killing floor. Governor Dean, after two defeats in two states ready-made for his candidacy, is finished. General Wesley Clark, whose candidacy was conceived to provide Democrats with an anti-Dean, has been rendered meaningless. Senator Joe Lieberman is done; you can't raise money when you run out of the money. Senator Edwards remains, but diminished by New Hampshire...So the question is: will Senator Kerry pull the trigger?"

"Pulling the trigger," to Ellis, means Kerry has to throw everything he has into winning the South Carolina primary, but that doesn't appear to be what Senator Kerry is planning. Jake Tapper, of ABC News reports that Kerry believes the notion that Democrats have to appeal to Southern voters in order to win the presidency is a mistake.

Perhaps Kerry's remarks were an unintentional slight on his part, but he has many Democratic leaders concerned. If, in fact, he meant what he said, then this race will not be decided anytime soon. Edwards, and possibly Clark, will win the majority of Southern delegates and turn this into a close contest. The question is not, "Will Kerry pull the trigger?" but "Where will the gun be pointing when he does?"

Whatever It Takes

"They will all promise every man, woman, and child in the country whatever he, she, or it wants. They'll all be roving the land looking for chances to make the rich poor, to remedy the irremediable, to succor the unsuccorable, to unscramble the unscrambleable, to dephlogisticate the undephlogisticable. They will all be curing warts by saying words over them, and paying off the national debt with money that no one will have to earn...In brief, they will divest themselves of their character as sensible, candid, and truthful men, and become simply candidates for office.

   - H. L. Mencken (1880-1956), American newspaperman

John Kerry, the most popular Democrat at the moment, caught the attention of Rich Lowry over at National Review Online. Lowry has compared Kerry's voting record in the Senate with what he's saying in his campaign now and discovered some contradictions.

"Kerry has long said that he is a great fighter. If he completes his miraculous comeback to win the Democratic nomination, he will indeed have the fight of his life on his hands--against his own legislative record."

Mr. Kerry thus far has spoken against the war...which he voted for, against the Patriot Act...which he voted for, against the No Child Left Behind Act...which he voted for, and against NAFTA...which he also voted for. He did vote against the final Bush tax cut legislation, so that is in accord with his campaign rhetoric.

What Lowry has done here is just the beginning. Every candidate's words and actions will be scrutinized by those who are against him, and every inconsistency will be pounced upon. Every promise and criticism will be minutely examined, and every disparity capitalized upon. No one who's in the race will escape. That's politics. Don't you love it?

Divided or Undecided?

"Commandment Number One of any truly civilized society is this: Let people be different."

  - David Grayson, English business leader & lecturer

Jeff Jarvis on his weblog, BuzzMachine, has written one of the best posts I've read in quite awhile. He cites part of a N.Y. Times story promoting the view that the Internet creates divisiveness among its users.

Jarvis links to the blog, Balkinization, where Jack Balkin refutes the Times article, then adds some comments of his own:

"...if these fearful critics read citizens' media (blogs), they would understand that it is incredibly open: You have to link to that with which you disagree so you can argue with it and by doing so, you send people to your opposition and absorb that opposition's viewpoint in what you write."

Mr. Jarvis then talks about the incredible array of choices we have in almost every aspect of our lives...except elected officials. "For we can't all have the President--or senator, or congressman, or mayor--we want...Somebody has to win...if we are to be a nation united, we have to end up selecting and supporting the winners."

Jeff thinks when all is said and done, and elections are over, we do tend to come together for the common good of our nation. He's convinced that the Internet helps us do this by being a source of information. Once informed, he believes, we reach our own conclusions, in our own sweet time. "No, the Internet is not dividing us. Politicians are. Media dinosaurs are."

I can't do his argument justice in the short space I have here, so go read it yourself, and be sure to check out his links. Well said, Jeff.

Coaltion? What Coalition?

"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."

    - John F. Kennedy (1917-1963), 35th U.S. president

Maureen Dowd, columnist at the N.Y. Times, had some unkind observations about President Bush's Tuesday night State of the Union Address. In her column yesterday, she not only criticized most of what the president said, but how he said it.

"...so in-your-face, smirking...the self-righteous litany of support...Can you believe President Bush is still pushing the cockamamie claim that we went to war in Iraq with a real coalition rahter than a gaggle of poodles and lackeys?"

You can read the whole thing right here. Free registration is required, an annoying little step you must take to read anything at The Times website.

Dowd's column somehow came to the attention of Jason Van Steenwyk, a U.S. Army officer stationed in Iraq. Steenwyk maintains a weblog, Iraq Now, when he's not dodging mortar shells, rockets and roadside bombs. He didn't appreciate what Ms. Dowd had to say about our allies:

"I wonder how many of these soldiers she's had the privilege of looking in the eye?...Their role is absolutely vital, their job dangerous as hell, and they're as tough as two-dollar steaks."

You can read the rest of his comments here. Take a few minutes and look at some of the other things he's written for some perspective about what it's like to be a soldier in the fray over there.

Several other bloggers commented on Dowd's column too. The recap I liked best was written by Matthew Hoy over at Hoystory.com. For a laugh, check it out.  

 

If I Am Elected...

"The point to remember is what the government gives, it must first take away."

     - John S. Coleman

After writing about the Bush administration's spending habits the other night, I ran across an analysis of how much the promises being made by the Democratic presidential candidates will cost the American taxpayer. It was written by Drew Johnson, a policy analyst for the National Taxpayer's Union.

If you're interested in how much of your money our government spends, regardless of which party is in power, then you may want to take a look at Johnson's findings.

"Despite expressing concern over red ink in the federal budget, every one of the eight hopefuls would worsen the deficit by billions or even trillions of dollars."

What Mr. Johnson and his colleagues have done is take the agendas of the Democratic candidates, assigned costs to them, and arrived at a total outlay for the 200+ proposals they have made. The most conservative, Joe Lieberman, would raise current federal spending by $170 billion, and the least conservative, Al Sharpton, would drive it up by $1.33 trillion. Repeal of all the Bush tax cuts wouldn't provide enough to cover even Lieberman's minimalist proposals.

Johnson details each candidate's platform in another policy paper which you can find here, and cites sources for all the information he uses. It appears to be pretty accurate.

Anyone like me, who believes in conservative fiscal policy, will not find a candidate in either party who plans to cut spending. Despite the Democratic candidates' disparagement of the current federal deficits, none of them would offer any relief based on what they're promising in their campaign speeches. We already know where Bush stands, so where does that leave us?

Living in America

"Just think how happy you would be if you lost everything you have right now, and then got it back again."

      - Frances Rodman

Pete Du Pont, a writer for the WSJ Opinion Journal, has penned an op-ed discussing Gregg Easterbrook's new book, The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse. Du Pont recalls how from the 1960's through the 1980's, pessimists predicted the demise of the world and its resources, and were dead wrong. He cites Easterbrook's research as he outlines the progess we've made in this country:

"Almost everything about American...life is getting better for almost everyone. Public health is improving...Environmental trends are nearly all postive...Welfare rolls are shrinking...Crime has declined...Education levels keep rising..."

When I think of my own childhood and what we had, compared to what we have now, I'm awed. We had no tv, no air-conditioning, no central heat, and no dial phones. We grew, or caught much of our food. Mom made many of our clothes and washed them by hand with a scrub board and washtub.  My grandparents had no running water, no indoor plumbing, and no electricity. 

The transformation of our society in the last 50 years has been nothing short of phenomenal. We have so much. Yet, with all this prosperity, Easterbook says we're not any happier. Why is this?

"...our genetic pessimism--an internal bad-news bias--plus the championing of victimhood by...the media, along with the material abundance that pressures us to seek more...are the reasons that people don't feel better off."

My parents labored physically and their world was pretty small. Today, we work with our minds, and our world is global. Stress is prevalent. The cost of "progress" may be the peace of mind I think my parents had. Is it worth it?

Art Appreciation

"If that's art, then I am a Hottentot."

  - Harry S. Truman (1884-1972), 33rd U.S. president

Dave Barry and his three-year-old daughter recently attended Art Basel, a significant art show held in Miami Beach. His, perhaps unique, experiences at the show were captured in a column which he wrote for the Miami Herald on Sunday:

"...there was a work of art consisting of a video, repeated over and over, showing a man--not in peak physical condition, I might add--rollerblading around a vast empty space, stark naked. I'm proud to say I betrayed no emotion while viewing this work, although my daughter, who is 3, said, quite loudly: 'You can see his tushy! Yuck!' "

Read the entire thing if you need a respite from all the serious things that are going on in the world today. If, however, you want something a bit more serious, Dave's column about the Iowa caucuses may fit the bill.

"It's caucus day, the day when hundreds of thousands of Iowa voters, finally getting their chance to respond to months and months of campaign rhetoric, will stay home."

Barry will be reporting from New Hampshire next, so stay tuned. He's about as non-partisan as they come, and if you're looking for fair-and-balanced, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone better. Substance? Hmmm, it depends on your viewpoint. Someone once said, "The love of truth lies at the root of much humor." I can't disagree with that. 

Oh, and by the way, Barry has his own blog. I checked it out and it's not bad. You can find it here.

The Achilles Heel

"Government can't give us anything without depriving us of something else."

    - Henry Hazlitt (1894-1993), American economist

John Cole on his weblog, Balloon Juice, talks about what he feels will make President Bush vulnerable this November. Many comments follow John's post that are worth reading.

Cole links to an article by Ralph Z. Hallow of the Washington Times who reports that national leaders of six conservative organizations have broken with the Republican majorities in the House and Senate, accusing them of spending like "drunken sailors." These leaders are also criticizing the president:

"The Republican Congress is spending at twice the rate as under Bill Clinton, and President Bush has yet to issue a single veto...The Constitution gives the president the power to veto legislation, and if Congress won't act in a fiscally responsible way, the president has to step in--but he hasn't done that."

I agree with Cole, and the conservative leaders. This administration and Congress have not enhanced support of the Republican Party faithful by taking discretionary spending to new highs. Unless this problem is addressed, it will give the Democrats the impetus they need to make the 2004 election an extremely tight race.

I would love to see President Bush acknowledge these excesses, and propose some solutions. A good place to start would be in the State of the Union Address Tuesday night, but I'm not holding my breath.

The Candidate for You

"Democracy is a process by which the people are free to choose the man who will get the blame."

- Laurence J. Peter (1919-1988), U.S. educator and writer

If you haven't seen it already, check out AOL's Election 2004 feature. Our ISP has done a commendable job of putting together profiles on each of the presidential candidates, their positions on the issues, current news about the race, and extras for your enjoyment like "Political Humor," and "The Sideshow," where fellow bloggers Progressive Musings and The Political Reality are highlighted.

If you want to discover which candidate most nearly reflects your own political views, there's a short quiz you can take which will provide an answer. At the end of the questionnaire, you're asked if you want only the best Democratic candidate, the best Republican candidate, or simply the best candidate, regardless of political affiliation. Try leaving that option open. Heck, you can always re-test yourself if you don't get the one you want.

When you leave your emotions out of the process and allow only the candidates' position on the issues to determine your best choice, you get surprising results. In my case, Kerry, Bush and Lieberman were at the top of the list, matching my views 90%+ of the time. Clark, Edwards, Dean and Gephardt were close behind, matching me 75% of the time. Bringing up the rear were Kucinich and Sharpton who matched me less than 50% of the time.

The site is informative and entertaining and worth a tour. Take the quiz too. It only takes ten minutes, it's fun, and may provide you with additional insight. Kudos to our friends at AOL for bringing this to us.

Best of 2003

"Sleep, riches, and health, to be truly enjoyed, must be interrupted."

 - Jean Paul Friedrich Richter (1763-1825), German novelist

Jean Paul has a point, but I'm about ready for the enjoyment. The interruption has not been any fun. I seem to be on the mend, but it's like I'm taking two steps forward and one backward. A little progress, then I feel punk again.

I had planned to write something earth-shaking tonight, but alas, all three of my brain cells have shut down. In place of the greatest blog post you would have ever read, I offer this for your enjoyment: Best Photos of the Past Year.

I'm going to put myself to bed now and try to get some rest. I resolve to do better.

 

And Plagues Swept the Land

"The sky is falling! I must go and tell the king."

  - Chicken Little in the fairy tale, The Sky is Falling

Michael Tracey, a columnist for the Rocky Mountain News, questions the media's inclination to ignore the real threats facing us to write instead about the latest cry of alarm. He uses the recent ban of ephedra as a case in point, telling us that Tylenol poses a greater danger, yet we don't hear much about that. Tylenol is "old" news. Who cares?

And what about SARS?

"The News alone in its archives has 317 stories involving the illness. The coverage was such, the fears induced such, that global travel was affected. Editorially, across the media, the story line was that here was the latest threat to the physical well-being of humankind."

Tracey feels that the dramatic headlines associated with the latest "scares" are unnecessary and misleading, especially since deaths from any of these things are insignificant compared to those from heart disease, cancer or Alzheimer's, to name a few.

Why does this happen? Well, because the media is out to make a buck, and to make a buck, they have to have viewers and readers, preferably more than their competitors. To get viewers and readers, they need something exciting or sensational to report almost every day. So when a new disease comes along, their tendency to make it sound worse than it is, is a means of getting your attention.

The problem with this is that tomorrow they'll need a new "threat to mankind," because out here in "radio-land" we become bored very quickly. Based on what I've seen over the years, they will find what they need, and we'll stay tuned. In the meantime, the things that are really killing us will be getting minimal coverage, if they're covered at all.

Guys Get It Done

"I would like to go hunting with him sometime."

          - Anonymous

I am battling a terrible cold, the flu, or some combination of the two, and don't feel like being at the keyboard, but when I read this Dave Barry column in the Miami Herald On-Line Edition this morning I just had to share it.

Barry tells the story of two guys with leaf-blowers. We've all seen guys with leaf-blowers...right? But have we seen any like these two? I'd bet my last Social Security check that one of them is a Republican and the other is a Democrat, they both think they're right, and are willing to make fools of themselves to prove it.

At Least the Jockeys Are Safer

"Liberty, when it begins to take root, is a plant of rapid growth."

      - George Washington (1732-1799), 1st U.S. President

War doesn't always keep people from doing the things they enjoy. Read this Washington Post article titled "Back in the Saddle in Iraq" which describes the resurgence of horse racing in Iraq:

"Thoroughbred racing, once a part of Iraq's proud desert heritage and more recently a victim of its self-indulgent dictatorship, has made a rapid comeback since Hussein's government was toppled in April...races started up again only 10 days after bombs stopped falling on Baghdad, and the sport has steadily gained popularity ever since."

Evidently, many Iraqis still have money, and they're willing to risk it on the horses and other games of chance in hopes of a big pay-off. The crowds are all male except for an occasional female journalist. When the ladies show up, they're normally with an armed guard because the men imbibe while they do their thing, and an unaccompanied woman might be in danger.

At the race covered in the Post story, the mood was "palpably relaxed and sporting in contrast to the tension of tightly scripted racing events described by Iraqis who frequented the track during Hussein's rule." Prior to the war, Saddam's son, Uday, ran the track, and if his horses didn't win, the jockey was punished. One was reportedly beaten to death in front of the crowd. I would imagine that jockeys ride much easier now that they aren't as worried about what happens if they lose.

The Olympic sports program is also being revitalized. Perhaps the reawakening of recreation in this country is a positive sign. Col. Vincent Foulk of the 308th Brigade thought so: "The payback is huge. It gets people back to work, and seeing sports is an indication of normality."

Play hard folks. You deserve it.

 

Helping People Find You

"Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known."

    - Blaise Pascal (1623-1662), French mathematician

I was visiting John Scalzi's By The Way earlier today, and found this post about plagiarizing. John did a great job of explaining what you can and can't do with other people's material. It's worth a read. His links led me to an article you may want to take a look at. I'll tell you why.

Many of you get your satisfaction from simply writing in your journal. Others, however, want readers. How can you determine if you have any? Well, you have the counter, which you can turn on to see if your site is being "hit." Those midnight phone calls you get from people whose sensibilities you've offended is another indicator. The comments that visitors leave for you is also a good way.

John gets a lot of these. I only get a few, but he's famous, you see. Anyway, if you're not getting many hits, or calls, and few people leave comments, perhaps you should consider "advertising" your journal. How do you do that? By listing your site on Google.

Could be everyone out there already knows how to do this. I didn't. You have to understand, however, that years ago when I was still working and the IT guy at our company was trying to convince me I needed a computer, I felt I could get by just fine with my pencil and notepad. Someone higher up convinced me otherwise, but I remain to this day a less-than-expert user.

That being said, if you haven't listed your journal at Google, and would like more people to find it, click on this link and list it. Forgo the "bombing." The process is quick, simple, and before you know it, you'll have thousands of readers, just like John!

An Unexpected Treasure

"How often I found where I should be going only by setting out for somewhere else."

     - R. Buckminster Fuller (1895 - 1983), American inventor

A close friend of mine is currently unemployed. After working eight years for a large corporation, he was laid off when his work group was consolidated and downsized. In talking with him about this, he admitted that he'd become disenchanted with his career and was relieved to be free to do something else. He thinks he'd like to start his own company, but isn't sure how to go about it, or what type of business he'd like.

Hoping to be of some assistance, I set about looking for something to help him find his way. As I searched, I ran across a feature in Forbes Magazine called the "Art of the Start," in which Guy Kawasaki, a venture capitalist, answers questions about beginning a business. When asked who he thought was a good role model as an entrepreneur, his answer surprised me:

"Let me answer this in a different way. Here's the best book you can read about being an entrepreneur: If You Want to Write by Brenda Ueland. Suspend your disbelief and buy/read this book. Trust me. It's the best explanation of entrepreneurship that I've ever read."

First published in 1938, Ueland's work was praised by no less than Carl Sandburg as "...the best book ever written about how to write." I found a copy and read it. It's a simple book, based on the premise of recognizing that you are worthy and talented, finding your own truth, and expressing that truth as you live each day.

I'd say Kawasaki and Sandburg were right on in their assessment of this little treasure, so much so that a copy will be in the mail to my friend shortly after the post office opens tomorrow.

Let Freedom Reign

"The first step toward being free is to choose to be."

    -Warren Berland, Ph.D., author

In December I wrote about the Afghans' search for democracy, and expressed concern about their ability to overcome their differences and come up with a constitution. I had doubts that Afghan women would be allowed to play significant roles in the constitutional process, and at the time, I felt the assembly might never finish its work.  I was wrong.

The Washington Post just reported that the constitutional loya jirga succeeded, and that Afghans had established the basis for democratic institutions and national elections in 2004. The 500 elected delegates "defied the enemies of Afghanistan's progress and overcame their past" by relying on words, not guns, to do their work. The "messy democratic process of debating, listening and compromising" was used to resolve every sticky issue, including the part women would play in the new government.

Speaking of the ladies, there were 102 of them, which tells me that the Taliban-imposed suppression of women had little support among the populace. In the assembly, they assumed leadership roles, and were courageous in their participation.

While Islam has been embraced as the state religion, provisions have been made for broad religious freedom, allowing those of other faiths to openly practice their religions with no fear of reprisal. This is a milestone!  

Challenges lie ahead. The constitution has to be implemented, extremists defeated, and militias disarmed. The country is poor and its people need economic opportunity. This will take years, but they are off to a good start. I believe they are committed to the process. I hope, with the help of the U.N. and our coalition, that they succeed.

Through An Artist's Eye

"You use a glass mirror to see your face; you use works of art to see your soul."

      - George Bernard Shaw

I really enjoy good photography and am constantly on the look-out for examples of the art in magazines, newspapers and on the internet. When I discover a photo that is particularly meaningful to me, I'll clip it or print it, and store it in a scrapbook I have set aside for this purpose. On those rainy days when going outside is not an option, I'll retrieve my collection and enjoy them once again.

When I'm looking at a photograph, I try to understand what the photographer was seeing and feeling when he captured the shot. I love people shots and the emotions evident in the faces of those in the picture. Landscapes and still life also appeal to me, for there's a mood created in every one. There's always something to like about shots of animals too. Often it's humor, and I see aspects of my own pet in most of them.

In really good shots, I'm impressed with how the artist has used light, shadow, perspective and composition to enhance the subject he has chosen. I must admit that I'm always a little envious of people who can take pictures that grab your attention the instant you see them. The AOL Journaler who does Insight32 is one of these individuals. Visit his site and prepare yourself for a visual treat.

A great set of photos can also be found at the Best of the Post-2003. All are worth the time it will take you to scroll through them. Be sure to check out #'s 1, 7, 9 and 10. They were my favorites.

 

I Should've Worked Harder

"It's not what you are that holds you back; it's what you think you are not."

- Denis Waitley, author, motivational speaker and consultant

This morning I received an email from an old friend of mine. Over the years, we have played many rounds of golf together. He told me that our youth had been mis-spent, for we had not taken our golf seriously enough. "We should have worked harder," he said, "for there would have been a pay-off." He invited me to open the file he had attached to his note.

Well, I did, and I must agree that he and I missed the boat. Larry sent me several photos of Greg Norman's new yacht, Aussie Rules. It measures 228 feet from bow to stern, a tad longer than the 14-foot boat I once owned, and boasts a 16-person crew. It carries on its aft deck five other boats, including a 42-foot sportfisher and four others for fishing and diving. There are 200 rods and reels on board, so any fish that is not suicidal should keep its distance.

Check out the photo gallery of the interior, especially the Cinema Lounge, and ask yourself if Greg would allow you to slurp beer and munch on chips while you sat in those blue chairs watching a movie? Describing this thing as sumptuous would be an understatement, for sure.

For those of you who don't know him, Norman is a professional golfer. He has parlayed his skill at the game into a multi-national corporation which includes wineries, restaurants, a line of clothing, course design and turf management, event planning, yacht and real estate sales. Not bad for a kid who only finished high school and earned $38/week as a golf pro shop trainee in his first job.

I understand you can charter Aussie Rules. Anyone interested in pooling resources and taking her for a cruise? I'll bring the beer and bait if someone will take care of the fuel.

Dean or Gephardt?

"It's not whether you win or lose--it's whether I win or lose."

         - Anonymous

Jack Beatty, senior editor at The Atlantic Monthly, penned an interesting article a little over a month ago titled, "Who Can Beat George W. Bush?"  I discovered it only tonight, but thought a lot of the points he made are still valid.

He goes with the popular opinion that the Democratic nominee will be either Dean or Gephardt, but thinks their promise to repeal the Bush tax cuts makes them weaker than the other presidential hopefuls:

"In the first presidential debate, if either Dean or Gephardt is the nominee, George W. Bush will point to his opponent and say, 'If your family income is $40,000 a year, this man will raise your taxes by over $1,200...' "

At the time he wrote this piece, Beatty felt declining support for the Iraq war would tilt things toward Dean. Since then, however, Saddam has been captured, Libya has given up its WMD programs, and Russia, Japan, Germany and France have forgiven Iraqi debt. All that might make Gephardt, who supported the resolution to use force against Iraq, a stronger candidate.

Beatty thinks Missouri is a key state which is in play if Gephardt, who is popular in the Midwest, is the nominee. Missouri has voted for the winner in 24 of the 25 presidential elections of the 20th century. 

He says Gephardt comes across as more knowledgeable and mature than the sometimes volatile Dean, and that he'll have stronger appeal to the average American than will the Yale-educated Dean. He sums up:

"There is not a state Dean would carry that Gephardt would lose, but Gephardt would be competitive in states Dean would lose."

About two months ago I predicted Gephardt would be the Democratic nominee. What think you?