Wednesday, November 5, 2003

Worse Than a Sunburn

"The tendency of an event to occur varies inversely with one's preparation for it."

         - David Searles

Does this concern anyone but me? The fragility of life here on our planet has never escaped my notice.  So many things we take for granted, not the least of which is that the Sun will rise tomorrow morning, and after it rises, it will behave itself.  Well, it's not behaving itself.

"Tuesday's flare went off the scale...(and) must have been the most powerful ever recorded, surpassing the X20 flares of 2 April 2001 and 16 August 1989."

Our Sun is 4.5 billion years old and is supposed to be "good to go" for another 5 billion years. At the end of that time it will have expended all its hydrogen. This will force it into radical changes which will completely destroy the Earth. 

These huge flares that are occurring make me start wondering how accurate the 5 billion year forecast really is.  Any of you have any experience with forecasting?  I have, and it's a highly uncertain process producing highly uncertain results.

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