"It's not whether you win or lose--it's whether I win or lose."
- Anonymous
Jack Beatty, senior editor at The Atlantic Monthly, penned an interesting article a little over a month ago titled, "Who Can Beat George W. Bush?" I discovered it only tonight, but thought a lot of the points he made are still valid.
He goes with the popular opinion that the Democratic nominee will be either Dean or Gephardt, but thinks their promise to repeal the Bush tax cuts makes them weaker than the other presidential hopefuls:
"In the first presidential debate, if either Dean or Gephardt is the nominee, George W. Bush will point to his opponent and say, 'If your family income is $40,000 a year, this man will raise your taxes by over $1,200...' "
At the time he wrote this piece, Beatty felt declining support for the Iraq war would tilt things toward Dean. Since then, however, Saddam has been captured, Libya has given up its WMD programs, and Russia, Japan, Germany and France have forgiven Iraqi debt. All that might make Gephardt, who supported the resolution to use force against Iraq, a stronger candidate.
Beatty thinks Missouri is a key state which is in play if Gephardt, who is popular in the Midwest, is the nominee. Missouri has voted for the winner in 24 of the 25 presidential elections of the 20th century.
He says Gephardt comes across as more knowledgeable and mature than the sometimes volatile Dean, and that he'll have stronger appeal to the average American than will the Yale-educated Dean. He sums up:
"There is not a state Dean would carry that Gephardt would lose, but Gephardt would be competitive in states Dean would lose."
About two months ago I predicted Gephardt would be the Democratic nominee. What think you?
1 comment:
Though he is not my first choice, I believe Dean will win the nomination. And yes, I believe he can beat Bush even though he has promised to roll back all the tax cuts.
There are far more important things than tax cuts and he will have to make convincing arguments for them. Deficit reduction and healthcare for all should be priorities.
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