"The future: you shall know when it has come; before then, forget it."
- Aeschylus (c. 525-456 B.C.), Greek playwright
I was surprised to see that people are already predicting who will win the 2004 election. Seven months from now seems a life-time to me, but maybe these oddsmakers know something I don't.
Jim Miller on Politics links to an op-ed by one of my un-favorite people, Dick Morris. Morris predicts the race will not be close--that Bush will win in a blow-out. Not to be outdone, Miller refers back to one of his early March entries in which he also predicts Bush will win big, 59% to 41%.
Miller links to several other prognosticators, none of whom I've visited before. The most interesting and colorful site to me was Scott Elliot's, The Blogging Caesar. Scott's "Twenty-One Reasons Why Bush Will Win" is very partisan, but he presents some interesting rationale for your consideration.
These prophets fail to mention the impact the 9/11 Commission's investigation might have on voter attitudes, and from where I sit, I'd say people are pretty stirred up about all that's being aired. It's a long time until November, though, and lots of things can happen that will influence which candidate people support when the time comes to cast their ballots.
What's your prediction? Kerry? Bush? A tight race, or a landslide?
2 comments:
I don't understand how Bush has a chance when you ask the incumbent questions: Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is the country better off than it was four years ago? Is the country moving in the right direction?
But that's just me, I guess.
You're right, seven months is an eternity. Let's just vote already!
Your questions are excellent, Duane, but people answer them very differently. Your responses lead you to a vote against Bush, while my neighbor's answers lead him to vote against Kerry. Our beliefs affect how we interpret things; perception is reality, in other words. Politicians know this, and try to manage those perceptions. You and I, who know everything, are not fooled by this, but we do worry about less enlightened souls, don't we? LOL.
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