Gore Voters: What Will They Do?

"No man sees far; the most see no farther than their noses."

 - Thomas Carlyle (1795-1881), Scottish born English writer

James Taranto, in a post for the WSJ Opinion Journal titled "Landslide Kerry?" quotes two gents who are predicting that John Kerry has the 2004 presidential election pretty well sewed up. Chuck Todd, editor of the Hotline, predicts a landslide for Kerry:

"The reason...is historical. Elections that feature a sitting president tend to be referendums on the incumbent--and in recent elections, the incumbent has either won or lost by large electoral margins. If you look at key indicators...it seems improbable that Bush will win big. More likely, it's going to be Kerry in a rout."

And Josh Marshall, on his weblog Talking Points Memo, makes the following prediction:

"President Bush's approval rating rests at 42%. Meanwhile, 60% say the Iraq war has not been worth the cost. In other words, that it was a mistake...These two numbers, particularly the first, are really close to the whole story. Incumbent presidents who fall short of 50% approval are in some danger. Those who aren't much over 40% are fighting for their political lives...I take it as a given that virtually no Gore voters from 2000 will pull the lever for Bush...And since there were more Gore voters than Bush voters last time anyway, well..." (underlining is mine)

Taranto suggests that Marshall's belief that no Gore voters will mark their ballot for Bush sounds far-fetched and perhaps "Democrats in 2004 are repeating the mistake Republicans made in 1996: assuming that the intensity of their own loathing for the incumbent means that loathing is widespread beyond the partisan base."

In a subsequent post Mr. Taranto provides some evidence that what Marshall predicts may indeed be far-fetched. Readers of his "Landslide for Kerry?" entry who were Gore voters in 2000 and plan to support Bush in 2004 wrote him with their rationale for a switch from Democrat to Republican. These make for some interesting reading and can be found at this link.

Then in another post titled "Gore No More-II," Taranto provides us with more correspondence from Gore defectors. You may read them by clicking on this link. He highlights one reader's take on why he believes significant numbers of Gore voters will vote for Bush this fall. Some of his thoughts:

1. Gore got a few points for being the incumbent...and an even bigger boost for being an incumbent when the economy seemed to be doing well. Bush will get the incumbent and 'improving economy' vote this time.

2. Most Vietnam vets remember Kerry's Vietnam Veterans Against the War activities, and not fondly. Huge numbers who voted for Gore...will desert Kerry--especially since any doubts about Bush's National Guard service are old news now, eclipsed by his post 9/11 performance.

3. Reports from the Jewish community indicate sizable movement--all of it toward Bush. No one thinks Bush will win the Jewish vote, but even being competitive will be a big swing in several battleground states.

Taranto closes by cautioning you ecstatic Republicans out there that his conclusions are highly speculative and that there may be those who voted for Bush in 2000 and have become disenchanted enough to vote for Kerry, though he hasn't heard from many of them. If you're a "Bushie" who plans to switch to Kerry, he'd love to hear from you. You can  e-mail him at this address.

November, in political parlance, is a lifetime away. Many things can happen between now and then. I hope Taranto is right and Todd and Marshall are wrong, but at the moment it's anyone's guess--despite what any polls or pundits may say. Stay tuned.