Countdown to Sovereignty

"If you can find a path with no obstacles, it probably doesn't lead anywhere."

  - Frank A. Clark

Author Con Coughlin, writing for London's Daily Telegraph, tells us of some of the near-term objectives of Ayad Allawi, Iraq's first post-liberation prime minister:

" 'It's not my ambition to run Iraq,' he told me when I last saw him in Baghdad. 'My objective all along has been to bring an end to Saddam's tyranny and establish a government in Iraq that is accountable to the Iraqi people.'

In many respects, then, this week's handover represents the halfway stage in a tortuous process that ultimately will result in Iraqis being given the opportunity of electing a government for the first time. Before that can happen...security within Iraq needs radical improvement and Allawi, who is well acquainted with the worlds of the military and intelligence, is well suited to the task.

Indeed such is his enthusiasm for tackling Iraq's lamentable security that he and his close aides have already dropped heavy hints that they intend to introduce martial law if the terror attacks continue at their current level.

Another measure of Allawi's no-nonsense approach is his determination to bring Saddam Hussein and the other leading Ba'athists currently languishing in American custody to trial at the earliest possible opportunity. So long as their fate remains unresolved, he argues, they remain a rallying point for disaffected Iraqis who oppose the post-Saddam political process."

Coughlin believes if Allawi can stabilize Iraq's security that the country's prospects are promising. He provides many examples of progress thus far:

"More than five million Iraqi primary school children have returned to the classroom...The coalition has spent $1 billion renovating and rebuilding hospitals and clinics...The Iraqi dinar has risen in value by 25 per cent since introduction of the new currency was completed in January...Unemployment is falling and will fall further as Allawi's government intensifies its recruitment drive for the armed forces."

Perhaps a new development has occurred with regard to insurgency that will aid Allawi in dealing with the continuing threat of terrorism. This Washington Post story  (registration required) by Edward Cody cites the protests of many Iraqi opponents of the U.S. occupation who are speaking out against the foreign guerrillas who are killing Iraqi citizens:

" 'We do not need anyone from outside the borders to stand with us and spill the blood of our sons in Iraq,' Ahmed Abdul Ghafour Samarrae, a Sunni eleric with a wide following, declared in his Friday sermon at Umm al Qurra mosque in Baghdad...'Which religion allows anyone to kill more than 100 Iraqis, destroy 100 families and destroy 100 houses?' raged Samarrae in his sermon. 'Who says so? Who are these people who do this? Where did they come from?...It is a conspiracy to defame the reputation of the Iraqi resistance by wearing its dress and using its name falsely. These people hurt the Iraqis and Iraq, giving the occupier an excuse to stay longer.' "

Other key figures, including the once rebellious cleric Moqtada Sadr, have also taken a pro-Allawi stance, calling for his followers to cooperate with Iraqi police in quelling the violence of foreign fighters. The actions of these clerics are good news for Allawi, who needs the support of the population if he is to bring an end to the destruction and discord being fomented by those who wish the new government to fail.

Could we call this a light at the end of the tunnel, or is it too soon to become optimistic? It's hard to say at this point, but come Wednesday and the days following the coalition turnover of government to Allawi's team, perhaps we will begin to understand how some of these things will play out.

Update: Robin Wright, staff writer for the Washington Post (registration required), gives us some more good news. A recent poll indicates that almost 70% of Iraqis have confidence in their new leaders. "The numbers are in stark contrast to widespread disillusionment with the previous Iraqi Governing Council, which was made up of 25 members picked by the United States and which served as the Iraqi partner to the U.S.-led Coaltion Provisional Authority. Only 28 percent of Iraqis backed the council when it was dissolved last month..."

Update: Omar, an Iraqi blogger, shares his views on Paul Bremer, former U.S. administrator for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq. Scroll down to the entry titled "From Um Mushtag to Abu Haider."