An Early Guess

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

   - Nils Bohr (1885-1962), Danish physicist

We're already seeing many predictions about who will win the presidency in November. There are dozens of polls every week, some saying Kerry, some saying Bush. There are websites like this one that track a flabbergasting number of factors to make their guesses. There are the Iowa Electronics Markets and other futures exchanges like them, which I wrote about the other day (see "Wanna Bet"). And there are pundits like William Kristol over at The Weekly Standard.

Who's your favorite candidate? Whoever it is, you can find someone who can prove to you that your man will win. In some ways, it's like trying to decide whether a stock you want to purchase is a good buy. Just read what enough analysts have to say about it and you'll eventually find one who'll tell you what you want to hear. Maybe that's why we listen so closely to these prognosticators. We're looking for confirmation of what we've already decided.

That being the case, Kristol's article, "Yes, Bush Will Win," should make a lot of Republicans happy. Mr. Kristol predicts that not only will the president win the election, but he'll win the war as well:

"How do I know this? Needless to say, I don't. And, God knows, the Bush administration often seems to be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But I've spent much of the last two weeks abroad, which (perhaps) gives you perspective. And that perspective leads me to think Bush will win."

Kristol says most of the world wants Bush to lose and that we Americans, being a stubborn lot, won't give them the satisfaction of allowing that to happen. That, he admits, might be wishful thinking, so he points to some of the things that he feels legitimately signal a Bush victory:

"We are actually winning the war in Iraq, and the war on terror...Saddam and his regime are gone; a decent interim Iraqi government is taking over, we and the Iraqis have not suffered a devastating level of casualties...there is nothing approaching civil war...And last week, the new prime minister, Iyad Alawi, thanked the United States for liberating Iraq, said that it would be 'a major disaster' for U.S. forces to leave, and privately said that to win the war you have to kill the enemy."

He also feels that, despite the difficulties we've faced in Iraq, a majority of Americans believe the policy of removing brutal dictators and changing the Middle East is the best way to fight the war on terror.

Kristol closes his op-ed with some observations about how the things that Democrats like Ted Kennedy, George Soros and Al Gore are saying about Bush in public forums could hurt their candidate more than they hurt Bush.

Will Kristol's prediction pan out? Who can say? His points are well-taken, but it's still a long, long time until November. I must admit, however, that with the economy continuing to improve as it is and the Iraq situation improving daily, the momentum would appear to be shifting toward Bush as Mr. Kristol suggests.

Update: Here's another columnist who thinks Bush is on a roll.